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Mexico10 March 2026

Target

CJNG · self-flying, AI-driven drones

Assessment

"We mapped how the CJNG cartel could build self-flying, AI-guided swarm drones — set out as a forecast with three possible timelines. Krame was first author and coordinator, and handed in the study before the threat reached United States national-security debate."

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On 2 June 2026 the capability came up in testimony before the United States Senate. The study was accepted for peer-reviewed presentation at EMCIS 2026, Paris.

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Peer-reviewed paper, EMCIS 2026 (European Mediterranean & Middle Eastern Conference on Information Systems) · co-authored with Simón Levy and Amanda Davies · public record.

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MexicoMarch 2026

Target

CJNG · who takes over after Mencho, and the split

Assessment

"Many expected that hitting the cartel's leadership would bring back order. Krame's call ran the other way: "the post-Mencho vacuum will not be filled by the State; it will be contested by factions with incentives to assert their dominance through visible violence." A second-wave risk, placed in the second quarter of 2026."

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Across that quarter, the gap went not to the State but to a cartel successor (Valencia González, "El Pelón"), with fighting between factions and rivals pushing on CJNG turf — the split the call had named.

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4th National Ungovernability Index, Krame (March 2026) · public record.